Joint Modeling of Repeated Measurements of Different Biomarkers Predicts Mortality in COVID-19 Patients in the Intensive Care Unit.

Introduction: Predicting disease severity is important for treatment decisions in patients with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit (ICU). Different biomarkers have been investigated in COVID-19 as predictor of mortality, including C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). Using repeated measurements in a prediction model may result in a more accurate risk prediction than the use of single point measurements. The goal of this study is to investigate the predictive value of trends in repeated measurements of CRP, PCT, IL-6, and suPAR on mortality in patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19. Methods: This was a retrospective single center cohort study. Patients were included if they tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR test and if IL-6, PCT, suPAR was measured during any of the ICU admission days. There were no exclusion criteria for this study. We used joint models to predict ICU-mortality. This analysis was done using the framework of joint models for longitudinal and survival data. The reported hazard ratios express the relative change in the risk of death resulting from a doubling or 20% increase of the biomarker's value in a day compared to no change in the same period. Results: A total of 107 patients were included, of which 26 died during ICU admission. Adjusted for sex and age, a doubling in the next day in either levels of PCT, IL-6, and suPAR were significantly predictive of in-hospital mortality with HRs of 1.523 (1.012-6.540), 75.25 (1.116-6247), and 24.45 (1.696-1057) respectively. With a 20% increase in biomarker value in a subsequent day, the HR of PCT, IL-6, and suPAR were 1.117 (1.03-1.639), 3.116 (1.029-9.963), and 2.319 (1.149-6.243) respectively. Conclusion: Joint models for the analysis of repeated measurements of PCT, suPAR, and IL-6 are a useful method for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients in the ICU. Patients with an increasing trend of biomarker levels in consecutive days are at increased risk for mortality.

Blood myxovirus resistance protein-1 measurement in the diagnostic work-up of suspected COVID-19 infection in the emergency department.

INTRODUCTION: Myxovirus resistance protein 1 (MxA) is a biomarker that is elevated in patients with viral infections. The goal of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of MxA in diagnosing COVID-19 infections in the emergency department (ED) patients. METHODS: This was a single-center prospective observational cohort study including patients with a suspected COVID-19 infection. The primary outcome of this study was a confirmed COVID-19 infection by RT-PCR test. MxA was assessed using an enzyme immunoassay on whole blood and receiver operating chart and area under the curve (AUC) analysis was conducted. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value of MxA on diagnosing COVID-19 at the optimal cut-off of MxA was determined. RESULTS: In 2021, 100 patients were included. Of these patients, 77 patients had COVID-19 infection and 23 were non-COVID-19. Median MxA level was significantly higher (p < .001) in COVID-19 patients compared to non-COVID-19 patients, respectively 1933 and 0.1 ng/ml. The AUC of MxA on a confirmed COVID-19 infection was 0.941 (95% CI: 0.867-1.000). The optimal cut-off point of MxA was 252 ng/ml. At this cut-off point, the sensitivity of MxA on a confirmed COVID-19 infection was 94% (95% CI: 85%-98%) and the specificity was 91% (95% CI: 72%-99%). CONCLUSION: MxA accurately distinguishes COVID-19 infections from bacterial infections and noninfectious diagnoses in the ED in patients with a suspected COVID-19 infection. If the results can be validated, MxA could improve the diagnostic workup and patient flow in the ED.

High procalcitonin levels associated with increased intensive care unit admission and mortality in patients with a COVID-19 infection in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Patients with a severe COVID-19 infection often require admission at an intensive care unit (ICU) when they develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Hyperinflammation plays an important role in the development of ARDS in COVID-19. Procalcitonin (PCT) is a biomarker which may be a predictor of hyperinflammation. When patients with COVID-19 are in the emergency department (ED), elevated PCT levels could be associated with severe COVID-19 infections. The goal of this study is to investigate the association between PCT levels and severe COVID-19 infections in the ED. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study including patients with a confirmed COVID-19 infection who visited the ED of Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, between March and December 2020. The primary outcome was a severe COVID-19 infection, which was defined as patients who required ICU admission, all cause in-hospital mortality and mortality within 30 days after hospital discharge. PCT levels were measured during the ED visit. We used logistic regression to calculate the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) of PCT on a severe COVID-19 infection, adjusting for bacterial coinfections, age, sex, comorbidities, C-reactive protein (CRP) and D-dimer. RESULTS: A total of 332 patients were included in the final analysis of this study, of which 105 patients reached the composite outcome of a severe COVID-19 infection. PCT showed an unadjusted OR of 4.19 (95%CI: 2.52-7.69) on a severe COVID-19 infection with an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76-0.87). Corrected for bacterial coinfection, the OR of PCT was 4.05 (95% CI: 2.45-7.41). Adjusted for sex, bacterial coinfection, age any comorbidity, CRP and D-dimer, elevated PCT levels were still significantly associated with a severe COVID-19 infection with an adjusted OR of 2.11 (95% CI: 1.36-3.61). The AUC of this multivariable model was 0.85 (95%CI: 0.81-0.90). CONCLUSION: High PCT levels are associated with high rates of severe COVID-19 infections in patients with a COVID-19 infection in the ED. The routine measurement of PCT in patients with a COVID-19 infection in the ED may assist physicians in the clinical decision making process regarding ICU disposition.